As we move into March there are 240 homesfor sale in the greater Carmel area (Carmel-by-the-Sea and the surrounding area), with properties taking about 180 days to sell…. These days, the number of sellers that “give up” is well above past years. This is reflected in the higher number of expired and canceled listings.

As the Carmel real estate market has softened I have seen buyers shift their attention from areas such as Carmel Woods or south east neighborhoods of Carmel-by-the-Sea to closer to town and into the “golden rectangle.” Properties are still selling in all neighborhoods but buyers are looking for the perfect home or the near perfect deal.

This Week’s SnapShot

 

Market Profile

Carmel remains firmly at the “buyer’s market” end of the spectrum. Since January first I have seen an uptick in buyer activity. The median list price has fallen $100,000 since the first of the year.  Successful sellers are those that adjust to the changing market by pricing their homes to differentiate themselves from the competition. If a home meets a buyer’s needs, they should submit a well prepared offer with supporting comparables.

The Market Action Index

The Market Action Index (MAI) measures available supply relative to the current level of demand. Index values above 30 indicate conditions favor sellers, below 30 favors buyers.

Median Price Per Square Foot

Homes in Carmel are not typically priced by “square foot” as there can be a 1,600 square foot home worth $900,000 a block from a home exactly the same size that might be worth $1,800,000. Nevertheless, median and average price per square foot are useful for tracking trends.

Looking at the market by Quartiles

To more accurately describe the sub-markets within Carmel, I report the median price in quartiles. The most expensive 25% of homes make up the first quartile, the next 25% the third quartile, the next 25% the third, and the least expensive 25% are the fourth quartile.

While the upper quartile is well off of what we saw in 2005, at the end of 2008 it was these higher priced properties that lifted the overall market.

Recent Sales

There were 25 closed escrows in Carmel in the last 3 months. They ranged in price from a low of $575,000 for the house on the corner of Highway 1 and Ocean Avenue to a high of $5,433,863 for a 3,100 square foot home on San Antonio Blvd and 8th Avenue. (Carmel Home Sales in the last 3 months) There are 20 Carmel properties currently in escrow. (Carmel Pending Home Sales)

Tracking Sales and Comparables

The easiest way to track comparables and properties of interest, is to use the Private Client MLS System to identify favorite properties. Once identified, the system will track and report on price changes, status changes, and the ultimate sale price when the property sells. You can also take a quick look at MLS listings for Carmel.

Market Profile

There are currently 5 Pebble Beach properties in escrow ranging in list price from $1,745,000 to a vacant lot listed for $300,000. (Current Pebble Beach Pending Sales) There have been 13 closed sales in Pebble Beach since October 1, 2008, ranging in sale price from $3,150,000 to $675,000 (Pebble Beach Sales since 10/1/2008).

As with other Peninsula markets, Pebble Beach remains firmly at the “buyer’s” end of the spectrum with 207 average days on market.

While Pebble Beach is certainly healthier than many other high end markets, a telling statistic is the percent of listed properties that have seen a price decrease, discussed below.

Pebble Beach Market Action Index

The market remains firmly at the “Buyer’s end” of the Market Action Index (MAI). An MAI above 30 typically indicates a Seller’s market with prices tending to rise. An MAI below 30 implies a buyer’s market with a great deal of inventory, increased days on the market and weakening prices. 

Pebble Beach Median Price

Pebble Beach has a range of housing stock (the lowest priced listing at the moment is a lot at $470,000  while the highest is a front line estate at $35,000,000). This fact makes Median price of limited value. One high end listing coming on, or going off, the market skews the numbers. 

By breaking the market into quartiles the data is a little more enlightening.

Most of the large fluctuations in list price occur in the upper quartile. However, if you look only at the bottom half (quartile three and four) you see that the lowest priced homes have trended downward since 2007.

As properties come and go the characteristics of these four quartiles changes. Each quartile represents 25% of the market, so Quartile 1 and 2 combined is the upper half, while Quartile 3 and 4 is the lower half.

Tracking Pebble Beach Properties

The easiest way to track properties of interest is to use the Private Client MLS tool which lets you select properties of interest and track them through the sales cycle, including their final sales price.  You can take a Quick Look at Pebble Beach listings on the MLS.

Insights

Buyers remain mostly on the sidelines. While many are concerned that the market may continue to settle, others are willing buyers  but unable to secure credit. There has been a decided uptick in showings and interest since the first of January.

There is a sense in our markets that we will settle into the bottom of the value curve over the next few months and then remain relatively flat for some time.

Buyers who find the home that fits their needs should act, and present a well supported clean offer. 
Sellers must do everything they can to make their home the “exceptional deal” for an “exceptional home.” Proper pricing, home staging, quality photography, and a strong internet presence are all imperative.

November is over. Certainly a slower real estate market on the Monterey Peninsula than in the months leading up to it.

Carmel Valley

Carmel Valley saw only two homes go into escrow. Then again, in November of 2007 there were only three home sales in Carmel Valley in November. The difference?

This year list the list price of Carmel Valley properties were $699,000 and $550,000. Last year: $2,850,000, $1,650,000 and $1,475,000.

The orange line represents Median Price 1 Year ago, the black line this year. The plateau we saw from May through mid September of this year has faultered in the last few weeks.

Carmel

Three homes went into escrow in Carmel in November. $599,000, 799,000, and $1,995,000. In November of 2007 nine properties went into escrow ranging in price from $1,190,000 to $8,999,999.

In the case of Carmel, list price was climbing a bit over the last couple of months. However, in November prices began trending downward at the same price levels as this time last year.

Pebble Beach

Six properties went into escrow in November of 2008 compared with 4 in the same month last year.

This years sales had list prices ranging from from 1.1 million to 3.775 million. Three of the six sales were listed above 3 million.

Two of the November 2007 sales were listed at just above 1 million and two where between 3.5 and 4 million.

As with all our markets, the listing or sale of a high priced home can “pull” the data one directon or another. This is especially true in Pebble Beach.

There are 150 properties for sale in Carmel, with properties taking over 180 days to sell….when they sell. These days, the number of sellers that “give up” is well above past years. This is reflected in the higher number of expired and canceled listings.

As the market has softened I have seen buyers shift their attention from areas such as Carmel Woods or south east neighborhoods of Carmel-by-the-Sea to closer to town and into the “golden rectangle.” Properties are still selling in all neighborhoods but buyers are looking for the perfect home or the near perfect deal. There is no particular sense of urgency on the part of buyers.

Market Profile

Carmel remains firmly at the “buyer’s market” end of the spectrum. We had an uptick in activity in late August and early September, unfortunately that has cooled with the ongoing economic crisis. There has been some indication as we move into mid November that buyers are returning to the market. (See the Market Action Index below)

The Market Action Index

The Market Action Index (MAI) measures available supply relative to the current level of demand. Index values above 30 indicate conditions favor sellers, below 30 favors buyers.

I predict we will see an improvement in the Market Action Index, and a reduction in inventory as we move towards the holidays. While I hope to see an increase in sales, much of the improvement will be a result of sellers pulling their homes off the market before the holidays.

Median Price Per Square Foot

Homes in Carmel are not generally priced by square foot, but it can be informative to track the square foot price as an indicator of the market’s trend.

Median Price by Quartile

To more accurately describe the sub-markets within Carmel, I report the median price in quartiles. The most expensive 25% of homes make up the first quartile, the next 25% the third quartile, the next 25% the third, and the least expensive 25% are the fourth quartile.

While the upper quartile is well off of what we saw in 2005, in the last few months it was these higher priced properties that have been lifting the overall market.

Recent Sales

There were seven properties that closed escrow in Carmel since the 10th of October ranging in sale price from a low of $815,000 on Upper Trail to a high of $2,700,000 on Camino Real. A PDf of Carmel Solds is here:

Carmel Solds.

Carmel Solds from July through October.

Tracking Sales and Comparables

The easiest way to track comparables and properties of interest, is to use the Private Client MLS System to identify favorite properties. Once identified, the system will track and report on price changes, status changes, and the ultimate sale price when the property sells.

Nineteen properties have sold in Carmel Valley, including those in escrow, since August 1st of 2008. Carmel Valley includes Cachagua, the next valley to the south from Carmel Valley. The Sales are listed below, by list price.

As you will notice, many of these properties saw a price decrease from their original list price. As with elsewhere, sellers and their agents are reducing list prices in an effort to find the market.  

Tomorrow I will be posting updated Carmel Valley analysis, with a discussion of pricing and absorption rate. Carmel Recent Sales over the last few months have seen price reductions as well. 

If you would like more detail on any of these sales, drop me an email. You can also sign up for the Private Client MLS Search Tool and track new and existing listings, and receive emails when properties you identify close escrow.

At the beginning of every week I email a Market Report for each community on the Monterey Peninsula.

Carmel Valley Sales

While the graphs and statistics I post offer insight into the health of the Carmel real estate, frequently my clients are tracking a specific property and want to know how it was received by the market. The best way to track properties is to use my Private Client MLS. You can save properties of interest into your favorites folder and be notified when they sell, and their sales price. Send me an email if you would like me to set up the property search tool.

Here are the sales in Carmel in the last three months. If you would like more information about any of these sales, let me know.