Zeppelin Ride—-A New Way to Look at Carmel, Pebble Beach Properties!

By mhodges | Published: February 5, 2009

In early December I had the priveledge of being the first Realtor to book a Zeppelin charter for some of my more adventurous real estate clients to look at their recent purchases from the air.  The twelve of us, plus the two pilots, departed Monterey airport and headed south east towards Carmel Valley. In advance I was able to provide the pilots with the GPS coordinates for a few of the passenger’s homes so we could more easily find them from the air.

The Zeppelin is Coming Back to Monterey…..

The Zeppelin is usually based in San Jose at Moffett Field from where it provides air tours of San Francisco. It also occasionally travels to Napa Valley. And, it will be back over Monterey, Pebble Beach, and Carmel on Thursday February 12th–The Thursday of the AT&T Golf Tournament.  [More information about schedule and costs below]

Our Trip

We headed out to just past Carmel Valley Village and on the way overflew the Del Mesa Development which is a short distance from the mouth of Carmel Valley on the North side.  [See CarmelValleyReport.com for market updates on the Valley.]

Cruising at about 40MPH we flew 1,000 feet above the ground past the village and the now closed Carmel Valley Airport.

We buzzed a few homes in Carmel Valley and then made our way west and flew over Carmel.  My two sons were able to identify their elementary school and we were able to easily identify the Sunset Center and a few other Carmel landmarks. [Carmel Real Estate info at www.carmelreport.com]

From Carmel we headed to Pebble Beach. [PebbleBeachReport.com] Looking back at Carmel Beach you get a sense of the view from the windows.

The airship is surprisingly quiet– much quieter than inside a commercial airplane. It is interesting to note that in addition to the large windows on each side, there are two windows that remain open. Given that you are only traveling at 40 MPH there is almost no wind noise but you don’t want to get to close without a hand on your hat.

There are no “bad seats” on the airship.

Except for takeoff and landing everyone is free to move around the cabin, discuss what they are seeing and even interact with the two pilots.

It is an amazing way to spend an hour and gain a whole new perspective of the Monterey Peninsula.

Information about Schedules and Flying

The Ship is scheduled to return to the Monterey area on Thursday the 12th. There are a couple of one hour tours scheduled about midday and a bit later in the afternoon. The standard rate is $495 per seat for the hour tour plus tax. However, they are running a special for this visit of “buy one and get the second one at 50%” and buy 5 get the 6th free.

If one wants to charter the entire ship (12 seats) the cost is $4,950 plus tax, equivalent to paying for 10 seats with 2 free.

If you would like to fly on the 12th drop me an email at malone@malonehodges.com or call my cell phone at 831-601-4740 and I can tell you more about our experience on the flight, the schedule for the 12th and set up a reservation.

 The airship website is at airshipventures.com. If you contact them directly mention my name and the discount offer. I hope to see you on the 12th!

Malone

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23 January 2009, Pebble Beach Real Estate Update

By mhodges | Published: January 23, 2009

Market Profile

There are currently 5 Pebble Beach properties in escrow ranging in list price from $1,745,000 to a vacant lot listed for $300,000. (Current Pebble Beach Pending Sales) There have been 13 closed sales in Pebble Beach since October 1, 2008, ranging in sale price from $3,150,000 to $675,000 (Pebble Beach Sales since 10/1/2008).

As with other Peninsula markets, Pebble Beach remains firmly at the “buyer’s” end of the spectrum with 207 average days on market.

While Pebble Beach is certainly healthier than many other high end markets, a telling statistic is the percent of listed properties that have seen a price decrease, discussed below.

Pebble Beach Market Action Index

The market remains firmly at the “Buyer’s end” of the Market Action Index (MAI). An MAI above 30 typically indicates a Seller’s market with prices tending to rise. An MAI below 30 implies a buyer’s market with a great deal of inventory, increased days on the market and weakening prices. 

Pebble Beach Median Price

Pebble Beach has a range of housing stock (the lowest priced listing at the moment is a lot at $470,000  while the highest is a front line estate at $35,000,000). This fact makes Median price of limited value. One high end listing coming on, or going off, the market skews the numbers. 

By breaking the market into quartiles the data is a little more enlightening.

Most of the large fluctuations in list price occur in the upper quartile. However, if you look only at the bottom half (quartile three and four) you see that the lowest priced homes have trended downward since 2007.

As properties come and go the characteristics of these four quartiles changes. Each quartile represents 25% of the market, so Quartile 1 and 2 combined is the upper half, while Quartile 3 and 4 is the lower half.

Tracking Pebble Beach Properties

The easiest way to track properties of interest is to use the Private Client MLS tool which lets you select properties of interest and track them through the sales cycle, including their final sales price.  You can take a Quick Look at Pebble Beach listings on the MLS.

Insights

Buyers remain mostly on the sidelines. While many are concerned that the market may continue to settle, others are willing buyers  but unable to secure credit. There has been a decided uptick in showings and interest since the first of January.

There is a sense in our markets that we will settle into the bottom of the value curve over the next few months and then remain relatively flat for some time.

Buyers who find the home that fits their needs should act, and present a well supported clean offer. 
Sellers must do everything they can to make their home the “exceptional deal” for an “exceptional home.” Proper pricing, home staging, quality photography, and a strong internet presence are all imperative.

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Pebble Beach Golf Resort Discount

By mhodges | Published: January 1, 2009

Normally my posts focus on homes for sale in Pebble Beach, Carmel or Carmel Valley but once in a while I stray from that topic.

The folks over at golfvacationinsider.com  recently posted an insider tip that Pebble Beach is offering play at Spyglass Hill and the Links at Spanish Bay at a 50% discount and the Pebble Beach course at 30% without having to be a guest at a Pebble Beach hotel.

The discount is offered to members of the Northern California Golf Association (NCGA membership costs $25 a year) and residents of Northern California. Members of recognized golf associations elsewhere in the country can join the NCGA. Info at ncga.org.

Many of us, including my 9 year old and 6 year old, are members of the NCGA. Keep in mind that members can play Poppy Hills for between $55-70 versus the regular $200. In fact, the NCGA offices are at Poppy Hills.

According to golfvacationinsider.com the discounts are as follows:

Golf Course Regular Price (with Cart) Discounted (with Cart)
Pebble Beach Golf Links $530 $375
Spyglass Hill $365 $185
Links at Spanish Bay $295 $135

Most importantly you don’t have to stay at the lodge to secure these rates and a reservation. There are blackout dates on January 16,17, and 18th.

The special only runs to the end of January. Pebble Beach reservations number is 800-654-9300.

I can’t vouch for how many spots are left over the coming weeks, but the weather is beautiful at the moment…

After your round of golf, give me a call and we can take a look at a few of the discounts on homes for sale in Carmel and Pebble Beach.

The story at golf Vacation Insider.

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True story of a Carmel Home Buyer

By mhodges | Published: December 21, 2008

I recently put another Carmel home in escrow.  I had been working with these clients for quite some time-looking for their perfect house. As with many buyers, my clients were hesitant to make a move given the economic uncertainty and credit crisis. However, when they found their house, it was clear that the time to buy was now. We knew this because several months ago I set them up on my Private Client MLS system and together we have been watching the real estate market.

Every couple of weeks I would receive a phone call from them about a new listing or I would send them a note about a pocket listing that might have been of interest. Over the weeks we looked at half a dozen properties, none of which were a perfect match.

With each showing we refined our search criteria.  We explored different neighborhoods, and the pros and cons of Carmel vs Carmel Valley or Pebble Beach.

When we found interesting properties, they would save them their “favorites” folder and we would track them as the listings expired, sold, or had price reductions.

Two months ago we selected a property and made a well defended, clean offer, albeit well below the list price. We failed to “reach a meeting of the minds” with the seller and moved on.

Three weeks ago we identified a house that struck them as a nearly perfect match. Over a weekend we were able to put it in escrow, in competition with another buyer, and are now moving towards a close of escrow early next year.

The moral of the story? In this market be conservative as to price, take your time, learn the neighborhoods that most match your personality, but be open to finding a near perfect fit. When you find it, act.

Yes, houses are investments, but they are not interchangeable. If you find the house that speaks to you, make an educated and defensible offer. Owning a “good investment” is smart -living in the house you love is the real point of buying a home.

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November 2008 Home Sales Compared to 2007 in Pebble Beach, Carmel, Carmel Valley

By mhodges | Published: December 11, 2008

November is over. Certainly a slower real estate market on the Monterey Peninsula than in the months leading up to it.

Carmel Valley

Carmel Valley saw only two homes go into escrow. Then again, in November of 2007 there were only three home sales in Carmel Valley in November. The difference?

This year list the list price of Carmel Valley properties were $699,000 and $550,000. Last year: $2,850,000, $1,650,000 and $1,475,000.

The orange line represents Median Price 1 Year ago, the black line this year. The plateau we saw from May through mid September of this year has faultered in the last few weeks.

Carmel

Three homes went into escrow in Carmel in November. $599,000, 799,000, and $1,995,000. In November of 2007 nine properties went into escrow ranging in price from $1,190,000 to $8,999,999.

In the case of Carmel, list price was climbing a bit over the last couple of months. However, in November prices began trending downward at the same price levels as this time last year.

Pebble Beach

Six properties went into escrow in November of 2008 compared with 4 in the same month last year.

This years sales had list prices ranging from from 1.1 million to 3.775 million. Three of the six sales were listed above 3 million.

Two of the November 2007 sales were listed at just above 1 million and two where between 3.5 and 4 million.

As with all our markets, the listing or sale of a high priced home can “pull” the data one directon or another. This is especially true in Pebble Beach.

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Loans for Homes in Carmel, Pebble Beach, Carmel Valley Update

By mhodges | Published: November 28, 2008

As I have stressed in my Carmel Report and Pebble Beach Report, the credit crunch has made it difficult for many Carmel and Pebble Beach buyers that in the past would have opted for “no-doc” or “low-doc” loans.

My friend Steve Woods at Blue Adobe Mortgage has provided the following update on the state of the mortgage market. Steve can be reached by email at stevew@blueadobemortgage.com or by phone at 831-917-4462. Give him a call for a quick quote and advice on how to best structure a loan in this market.

New 2009 Conforming Loan Maximums

The temporary jumbo conforming mortgage loan limit of $727,750 has expired. The new jumbo conforming limit will be based on 115 percent of the County median sales price, not to exceed $625,500.

Jumbo conforming loan limits for our regional market area will be as follows:
• Monterey County  $483,000
• Santa Cruz County  $625,500
• San Benito County  $625,500
• Santa Clara County  $625,000

Most of the San Francisco Bay counties received the highest designation. Monterey County which used to have a median price similar to Santa Cruz has seen a 50 percent reduction in the median price and will see the lower $483,000 loan maximum. The standard conforming loan limit will remain at $417,000 for all of the above counties.

In addition, FHA loans have been increased along the same line as jumbo conforming. Monterey will have a new FHA jumbo loan maximum of $483,000 and Santa Cruz, San Benito and Santa Clara Counties will receive $625,500. FHA loans are important for our market due to their low down payment requirement and easier underwriting guidelines. As of January 1st, 2009 the down payment for FHA loans will be 3.5 percent. FHA allows a parent or relative to give the down payment as a gift to a potential purchaser and is an excellent program for the first time buyer. Young professionals in our market area are encouraged to learn more about FHA financing.

The Jumbo Secondary Mortgage Market no longer exists (loans over $625,500) Due to the “sub-prime” and “Alt-A” market meltdowns, lenders no longer package loans above the “super conforming” loan limits for sale to various investors. There are a few regional banks who are offering “short-term” adjustable loans up to loan amounts of $5 million,  however these loans are fully documented income with credit scores of over 720 and reasonable cash reserves.

The “stated income, stated asset” loan type no longer exists and is blamed for the credit meltdown we have seen over the past 15 months. We are back to the 1970’s with respect to loan underwriting.

For more information about mortgage financing feel free to give Steve a call directly, or you can reach me at 831-601-4740 or malone@malonehodges.com to discuss a specific property or area.

It is imperative that you have the financing piece of the puzzle in place to make the most effective offer possible.

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Pebbble Beach and Carmel High End Homes Tracking with National Market?

By mhodges | Published: November 23, 2008

 The Pebble Beach housing market has softened somewhat, more so at the highest price point.  The Carmel housing market is holding its own with a bit of strengthening at the upper end. First, a look at our markets, then some national numbers. 

 To more accurately describe the real estate sub-markets, I report the median price in Carmel and Pebble Beach in quartiles. The most expensive 25% of homes make up the first quartile, the next 25% the third quartile, the next 25% the third, and the least expensive 25% are the fourth quartile. 

The data supports my feeling that home buyers are opting to move towards the “golden rectangle” and higher value locations as the market has softened.

Buyers with money, and liquidity, remain active in the upper end. Having said that, buyers are in “deal mode” recognizing that they have the upper hand in this market.

     Pebble Beach remains relatively flat. It is important to remember that there are not that many homes at the high end so the sale of a single home, or the addition of one especially high priced listing can skew the numbers.

In the case of both Carmel and Pebble Beach, traditionally many sellers “don’t have to sell.” These sellers will often try the market for 6 months to a year and then withdraw to wait for a better opportunity.

As the economy remains weak, some of these sellers are going to find that their ability/desire to continue to hold weakening. 

That fact is reflected in the numbers. Half of the homes currently listed have undergone a price reduction.

Nationwide Luxury Home Market Trends

Luxury home asking prices have fallen just over 5% so far in 2008. Average days on market, in high end markets, has stretched from 125 to 148 days. The “high end” is defined as the top 10 wealthiest zipcodes in 30 large metro areas across the country.

Nationwide agents are seeing the same growing concern amongst high end clients about the length and depth of the current financial crisis.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and the credit freeze on September 15th signaled a change in attitude across the top end.  

Short sales and even foreclosures are occuring at these higher prices, a  rare occurance only a 18 months ago.

Insights

Price is becoming ever more important. Buyers are deal hunting and negotiating hard. Succesful sellers are pricing with that in mind.

The houses that are selling, are selling for prices set for today’s market-not the market of last year, last summer or even last month. That being said, there is still a market out there-people are still buying and selling homes. And there are a lot of investers looking for good investor opportuntities.

If you would like to discuss a specific neighborhood, or house, give me a call on my cell phone at 831-601-4740 or send an email to malone@malonehodges.com

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Carmel Real Estate Market Update 18 Nov 2008

By mhodges | Published: November 18, 2008

There are 150 properties for sale in Carmel, with properties taking over 180 days to sell….when they sell. These days, the number of sellers that “give up” is well above past years. This is reflected in the higher number of expired and canceled listings.

As the market has softened I have seen buyers shift their attention from areas such as Carmel Woods or south east neighborhoods of Carmel-by-the-Sea to closer to town and into the “golden rectangle.” Properties are still selling in all neighborhoods but buyers are looking for the perfect home or the near perfect deal. There is no particular sense of urgency on the part of buyers.

Market Profile

Carmel remains firmly at the “buyer’s market” end of the spectrum. We had an uptick in activity in late August and early September, unfortunately that has cooled with the ongoing economic crisis. There has been some indication as we move into mid November that buyers are returning to the market. (See the Market Action Index below)

The Market Action Index

The Market Action Index (MAI) measures available supply relative to the current level of demand. Index values above 30 indicate conditions favor sellers, below 30 favors buyers.

I predict we will see an improvement in the Market Action Index, and a reduction in inventory as we move towards the holidays. While I hope to see an increase in sales, much of the improvement will be a result of sellers pulling their homes off the market before the holidays.

Median Price Per Square Foot

Homes in Carmel are not generally priced by square foot, but it can be informative to track the square foot price as an indicator of the market’s trend.

Median Price by Quartile

To more accurately describe the sub-markets within Carmel, I report the median price in quartiles. The most expensive 25% of homes make up the first quartile, the next 25% the third quartile, the next 25% the third, and the least expensive 25% are the fourth quartile.

While the upper quartile is well off of what we saw in 2005, in the last few months it was these higher priced properties that have been lifting the overall market.

Recent Sales

There were seven properties that closed escrow in Carmel since the 10th of October ranging in sale price from a low of $815,000 on Upper Trail to a high of $2,700,000 on Camino Real. A PDf of Carmel Solds is here:

Carmel Solds.

Carmel Solds from July through October.

Tracking Sales and Comparables

The easiest way to track comparables and properties of interest, is to use the Private Client MLS System to identify favorite properties. Once identified, the system will track and report on price changes, status changes, and the ultimate sale price when the property sells.

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Real Estate Areas in Carmel, Carmel Valley and Pebble Beach

By mhodges | Published: November 12, 2008

I was showing clients property yesterday and the topic of “real estate areas” again came up. I always start a tour with a copy of the area map and an explanation of how it works. They were surprised to learn about “areas” although they had bought and sold several homes in Carmel and Pebble Beach.

To help organize properties, the local real estate boards create “areas.” In theory the homes within a given area are more alike than not: built at the same time, on lots of similar size, similar square footage. This theory brakes down in certain areas of the Monterey Peninsula, but the system is still useful in searching for properties and doing  broad comparisons of different neighborhoods.

For example, the “golden rectangle” area of Carmel is also known as area 143. Carmel Point is in area 145 and Hatton Fields is defined as area 147.

Click on  carmel-area-map-in-color to see a pdf of Carmel’s real estate areas.

If you know the area number for the neighborhoods you are interested in, it can make using a search tool much more effective. In my Private Client MLS tool you can search by city, but you can also search by area.

If you would like a copy of the area map for Pebble Beach, Carmel Valley, or other Monterey peninsula communities, drop me an email.

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Carmel Valley Recent Home Sales, 1 August to 10 November 2008

By mhodges | Published: November 10, 2008

Nineteen properties have sold in Carmel Valley, including those in escrow, since August 1st of 2008. Carmel Valley includes Cachagua, the next valley to the south from Carmel Valley. The Sales are listed below, by list price.

As you will notice, many of these properties saw a price decrease from their original list price. As with elsewhere, sellers and their agents are reducing list prices in an effort to find the market.  

Tomorrow I will be posting updated Carmel Valley analysis, with a discussion of pricing and absorption rate. Carmel Recent Sales over the last few months have seen price reductions as well. 

If you would like more detail on any of these sales, drop me an email. You can also sign up for the Private Client MLS Search Tool and track new and existing listings, and receive emails when properties you identify close escrow.

At the beginning of every week I email a Market Report for each community on the Monterey Peninsula.

Carmel Valley Sales

Address List Price List at Sale Sale Price Beds Baths SqFt Age DOM
5 CAMP STEFFANI RD $559,000 $429,900 $370,000 2 1.0 840 58 442
78 SOUTHBANK RD $575,000 $575,000   2 1.0 1,384 56 0
38261 TASSAJARA RD $599,000 $599,000   2 1.0 950 10 66
80 SOUTHBANK RD $625,000 $625,000   3 2.0 1,400 27 12
621 COUNTRY CLUB HT $869,000 $699,000   4 2.0 2,079 47 146
90 BORONDA RD $1,049,000 $725,000   2 2.5 1,786 61 304
26065 DOUGHERTY PL $924,900 $859,900 $865,000 4 3.5 2,606 34 107
25950 CANADA DR $999,000 $999,000   3 3.0 1,950 39 24
25275 OUTLOOK DR $1,249,000 $1,169,000 $1,087,500 2 2.0 2,350 35 64
25640 TIERRA GRANDE DR $1,395,000 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 5 3.0 3,100 35 133
13449 MIDDLE CANYON RD $1,285,800 $1,285,800 $1,290,000 3 3.0 2,600 0 38
1 BORONDA RD $1,295,000 $1,295,000 $1,182,000 4 3.5 3,538 18 89
625 VIA LA ESTRELLA RD $1,495,000 $1,299,000 $1,140,000 5 3.5 3,880 29 600
270 EL CAMINITO RD $1,695,000 $1,395,000 $1,285,000 3 2.0 2,400 49 132
27365 SCHULTE RD $1,850,000 $1,675,000 $1,550,000 4 3.0 2,250 33 98
26275 RINCONADA DR $1,775,000 $1,775,000   3 2.0 3,100 24 243
19350 CACHAGUA RD $2,495,000 $2,495,000 $2,100,000 2 2.0 2,866 51 173
2 RED TAIL TC $3,280,000 $3,280,000 $2,850,000 3 3.5 3,420 3 189
4 RUMSEN TC $5,395,000 $5,395,000 $4,800,000 3 3.5 4,285 2 343
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