Pebble Beach Home Sales
Pebble Beach is known internationally for its golf courses, magnificent estates, the Pebble Beach Lodge, and 17 mile drive. It may come as a surprise to learn there are 2,900 developed lots in Del Monte Forest (Pebble Beach) the majority of which are homes under 2,800 square feet. While there are homes of larger size and higher price throughout the forest, the majority of the more expensive homes are located closest to the coast, the Lodge, on one of the golf courses and on those streets with ocean views. As with our other markets, there is a great deal of price variability based on location, and home size.
Eighty two homes sold in Pebble Beach for a volume of $151,834,099. In the previous year there were 75 homes sold valued at $159,179,850. Pebble is a small enough market that the sale of a single high priced listing can swing the statistics. It is also an area that frequently has off market sales that are not incorporated in the year to year statistics gleaned from the Multiple Listing Service. For example,Carmel Realty Company represented both the buyer and seller on an $11,000,000 transaction that was confidential and does not appear in the market data.
Pebble Beach Quartiles of Homes for Sale
If one divides the market in fourths, it is clear that the velocity of sales at the lower end of the range is much greater than amongst the Pebble Beach estates for which the area is famous. The upper quartile, with a median price of $6,725,000 has averaged 494 days on the market while the faster moving bottom quartile has a Days on Market metric of only 183 days. Twenty of the sales in 2011 were at prices at or above $2,000,000 while 33 were at or below $1,000,000. [For comparison, in 2006 there were 75 homes sold in Pebble Beach. Thirty of those sales were at or above $2,000,000 only five were at or below $1,000,000.]
The difference between each quartile in Pebble Beach is much more pronounced than in Carmel. In Pebble Beach the average top/first quartile home is 3.5 times larger than a home in the bottom/fourth quartile. In Carmel the average top/first quartile home is just over twice as large as the bottom/fourth cottage.
Pebble Beach Housing Inventory
The seasonal drop of in inventory in late 2011 was greater than in previous years. As inventory rises over the first quarter of 2012 it will be interesting to see if it will settle at a level similar to 2011 and 2010. The Pebble Beach market would certainly benefit from a higher absorption rate and less inventory.
Days On Market
As was clear in discussion of the market by quartile, the velocity of sales in the upper half of the market is lethargic. Generally higher priced homes in a given area do take longer to sell than homes in the lower quartiles, but in the case of Pebble Beach the delta between each quartile has grown over the last few years.
Median Price of Pebble Beach Homes for Sale
The median price graph for Pebble Beach is distinct from our other markets. Carmel Valley and to a lesser extent Carmel both begin their downward trajectory in late 2007 with a degree of acceleration in early 2009 and again in early 2010 with relatively flat pricing through 2011. In contrast Pebble Beach remained relatively flat until February of 2010 when a steep angle of decline in median price began and continued through the early fall of 2011. Pricing over the last several months has shown an inflection but given the limited total number of properties listed it would be unwise to predict a reversal in the trend. The uptick in pricing appears to be in the second/upper quartile of properties with an average list price just under $3,000,000.
